The Cigna Group (The Cigna Group) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.03% (As of Apr. 28, 2024)

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What is The Cigna Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, The Cigna Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of The Cigna Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Healthcare Plans subindustry, The Cigna Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

The Cigna Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Healthcare Plans Industry

For the Healthcare Plans industry and Healthcare sector, The Cigna Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where The Cigna Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

The Cigna Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-8.21

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For insurance companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Short-term investments)

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

The Cigna Group (NYSE:CI) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

The Cigna Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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The Cigna Group (The Cigna Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Plans » The Cigna Group (NYSE:CI) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CI:Mexico CGN:Germany CGN:Germany C1IC34:Brazil CIGN:Austria

Address

900 Cottage Grove Road, Bloomfield, CT, USA, 06002

Website

https://www.cigna.com

Cigna primarily provides pharmacy benefit management and health insurance services. Its PBM services, which were greatly expanded by its 2018 merger with Express Scripts, are mostly sold to health insurance plans and employers. Its largest PBM contract is the Department of Defense and it recently won a deal with top-tier insurer Centene. In health insurance and other benefits, Cigna mostly serves employers through self-funding arrangements, but it also operates in government programs, such as Medicare Advantage. The company operates mostly in the U.S. with 18 million U.S. medical members covered as of the end of June 2023.

Executives

Cynthia Ryan	officer: EVP, CHRO	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Z, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Nicole S Jones	officer: EVP, General Counsel	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL18Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Agoglia Hoeltzel Mary T	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, TWO LIBERTY PLACE, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Brian C Evanko	officer: President Government Business	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Everett Neville	officer: EVP, Strategy and Business Dev	ONE EXPRESS WAY, ST. LOUIS MO 63121
Paul A Sanford	officer: EVP Operations	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Z, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Phillip Ozuah	director	30 HUDSON STREET, FLOOR 33, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Donna F Zarcone	director	C/O HARLEY DAVIDSON, 3700 W. JUNEAU AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Michael W Triplett	officer: President, US Markets	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Elder Granger	director	5176 S. LEWISTON WAY, CENTENNIAL CO 80015
David Cordani	director, officer: President & CEO	THE CIGNA GROUP, 900 COTTAGE GROVE ROAD, BLOOMFIELD CT 06002
Jason D Sadler	officer: Pres., International Markets	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Eric P Palmer	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
David J Brailer	officer: EVP & Chief Health Officer	4 PRESIDIO TERRACE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94118
Charles Berg	officer: Pres, Govt Programs & Sr Advsr	48 MONROE TURNPIKE, TRUMBULL CT 06611