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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Ark Restaurants's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Restaurants subindustry, Ark Restaurants's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Ark Restaurants's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Ark Restaurants's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -7.10 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.08% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Ark Restaurants (NAS:ARKR) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ark Restaurants's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Satterfield Thomas A Jr | 10 percent owner | 2609 CALDWELL MILL LN, BIRMINGHAM AL 35243 |
Michael S Weinstein | director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & CEO | C/O ARK RESTAURANTS CORP, 85 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
Anthony Sirica | director, officer: Chief Financial Officer | 85 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
Paul Gordon | director, officer: Senior Vice President | C/O ARK LAS VEGAS RESTAURANTS CORP, 3790 LAS VEGAS BLVD S SUITE 11, LAS VEGAS NV 89109 |
Vincent Pascal | director, officer: Senior Vice President | C/O ARK RESTAURANTS CORP, 85 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
Steven Shulman | director | C/O PARAGON TECHNOLOGIES INC, 600 KUEBLER ROAD, EASTON PA 18040 |
Robert J Stewart | director, officer: President and CFO | C/O ARK RESTAURANTS CORP, 85 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
Arthur Stainman | director | 320 EAST 72ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021 |
Bruce R Lewin | director | G&G RETAIL INC, 520 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018 |
Robert Towers | director, officer: Executive Vice President | C/O ARK RESTAURANTS CORP, 85 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
Marcia Allen | director | P.O. BOX 399, 2600 W. HOMESTEAD CIRCLE, WILSON WY 83014 |
Prides Capital Partners, Llc | 10 percent owner | 200 HIGH STREET, SUITE 700, BOSTON MA 02110 |
Robert Thomas Zankel | director | 808 BROADWAY, PHB, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
Stephen A Novick | director | ANDREA & CHARLES BRONFMAN PHILANTROPIES, 110 EAST 59TH STREET, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
Charles E Mccarthy | 10 percent owner | 200 HIGH STREET, SUITE 700, BOSTON MA 02110 |
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