Alaska Air Group (Alaska Air Group) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.04% (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is Alaska Air Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Alaska Air Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Alaska Air Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Airlines subindustry, Alaska Air Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Alaska Air Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Alaska Air Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alaska Air Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Alaska Air Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-7.81

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Alaska Air Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Alaska Air Group (Alaska Air Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Alaska Air Group Inc (NYSE:ALK) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ALK:Germany ALK:Germany

Address

19300 International Boulevard, Seattle, WA, USA, 98188

Website

https://www.alaskaair.com

Alaska Air Group Inc operates two airlines, Alaska and Horizon in three operating segments. The Mainline segment includes scheduled air transportation on Alaska's Boeing and Airbus jet aircraft for passengers and cargo throughout the U.S., and in parts of Mexico, and Costa Rica. The Regional segment includes Horizon's and other third-party carriers' scheduled air transportation for passengers across a shorter distance network within the U.S. and Canada under capacity purchase agreements (CPA). The Horizon segment includes the capacity sold to Alaska under a CPA. It earns revenues from Passenger tickets, including ticket breakage and net of taxes and fees, Passenger ancillary and Mileage Plan passenger revenue.

Executives

Benito Minicucci	officer: EXEC VP/OPS AND COO	C/O ALASKA AIRLINES, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD SO, SEATTLE WA 98188
Jason M Berry	officer: President, Horizon Air	C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD., SEATTLE WA 98188
J Kenneth Thompson	director	ALASKA AIR GROUP, 19300 PACIFIC HIGHWAY SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98188
Andrea L Schneider	officer: VP PEOPLE	ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Andrew R Harrison	officer: VP/PLNG & REV MGMT	C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Shane R Tackett	officer: SR VP REV/E-COMMERCE	C/O ALASKA AIRLINES, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Dhiren R. Fonseca	director	C/O NORTHWEST RETAIL PARTNERS, LTD., 224 WESTLAKE AVE N, SUITE 500, SEATTLE WA 98109
Adrienne Rochelle Lofton	director	C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Daniel Kevin Elwell	director	C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Knight Jessie J Jr	director	4329 FOX BROOK LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Susan J Li	director	ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Helvi Kay Sandvik	director	C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
James A Beer	director	MCKESSON CORPORATION, ONE POST STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Raymond L. Conner	director	ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Kathleen T Hogan	director	C/O MICROSOFT CORPORATION, ONE MICROSOFT WAY, REDMOND WA 98052-6399