What is Alico Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Alico's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Alico's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Farm Products subindustry, Alico's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Alico's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry
For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Alico's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Alico's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Alico Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -9.25 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.01% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Alico (ALCO) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10070 Daniels Interstate Court, Suite 100, Fort Myers, FL, USA, 33913
Alico Inc is a Florida-based agribusiness and land management company that primarily focuses on citrus production and grove conservation. The company operates through two primary business units: Alico Citrus and Land Management and Other Operations. The Alico Citrus segment engages in cultivation of citrus trees and delivers citrus to the processed and fresh citrus markets. It mainly serves the processed market and sells primarily Hamlin oranges and the Valencia variety to the orange juice processors. The Land Management and Other Operations segment engages in land leasing for recreational, conservation, and mining activities. Alico Citrus delivers most of the revenue as the firm's primary operating business unit.
Executives
| Katherine English |
director |
7951 DENI DRIVE, NORTH FORT MYERS FL 33917 |
| Adam Putnam |
director |
ONE WATERFOWL WAY, MEMPHIS TN 38120 |
| Bradley Heine |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O ALICO, INC., 10070 DANIELS INTERSTATE COURT, STE 200, FORT MYERS FL 33913 |
| Vecchio Perry Del |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
3207 PACIFIC DR, NAPLES FL 34119 |
| Arlon Valencia Holdings Llc |
director |
C/O ARLON GROUP 277 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10172 |
| Remy W Trafelet |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O TRAFELET BROKAW CAPITAL MANAGEMENT,, 410 PARK AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| 734 Investors, Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O 734 AGRICULTURE, LLC, 410 PARK AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Toby K Purse |
director |
1276 OSCEOLA DRIVE, FORT MYERS FL 33901 |
| Benjamin D Fishman |
director |
6 WILLOW PLACE, BROOKLYN NY 11201 |
| George R Brokaw |
director, 10 percent owner |
DISH NETWORK CORPORATION, 9601 S MERIDIAN BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| 734 Agriculture, Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
410 PARK AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Daniel Keith Sutton |
officer: President of Citrus |
5289 RIVER BLOSSOM LANE, LABELLE FL 33935 |
| Joseph Sambuco |
director |
10070 DANIELS INTERSTATE COURT, FT MYERS FL 33913 |
| Richard Rallo |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
3265 LARSON BLVD, OCEANSIDE NY 11572 |
| Clayton G Wilson |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O THE LATT MAXCY CORPORATION, 21299 US HIGHWAY 27, LAKE WALES FL 33859 |
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