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GuruFocus Financial Strength Rank measures how strong a company’s financial situation is. It is based on these factors

1. The debt burden that the company has as measured by its Interest coverage (current year).
2. Debt to revenue ratio. The lower, the better
3. Altman Z-score.

A company ranks high with financial strength is likely to withstand any business slowdowns and recessions.

Financial Strength : 6/10

vs
industry
vs
history
Cash to Debt 2.21
GMCR's Cash to Debt is ranked higher than
84% of the 1703 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 0.37 vs. GMCR: 2.21 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Cash to Debt Range
Min: 0   Max: 4.4
Current: 2.21

0
4.4
Equity to Asset 0.73
GMCR's Equity to Asset is ranked higher than
88% of the 1694 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 0.52 vs. GMCR: 0.73 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Equity to Asset Range
Min: 0.32   Max: 0.75
Current: 0.73

0.32
0.75
Interest Coverage 81.02
GMCR's Interest Coverage is ranked higher than
77% of the 1017 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 18.78 vs. GMCR: 81.02 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Interest Coverage Range
Min: 0.5   Max: 81.02
Current: 81.02

0.5
81.02
F-Score: 7
Z-Score: 10.86
M-Score: -2.34
WACC vs ROIC
16.00%
22.59%
WACC
ROIC
GuruFocus Profitability Rank ranks how profitable a company is and how likely the company’s business will stay that way. It is based on these factors:

1. Operating Margin
2. Trend of the Operating Margin (5-year average). The company with an uptrend profit margin has a higher rank.
••3. Consistency of the profitability
4. Piotroski F-Score
5. Predictability Rank•

The maximum rank is 10. A rank of 7 or higher means a higher profitability and may stay that way. A rank of 3 or lower indicates that the company has had trouble to make a profit.

Profitability Rank is not directly related to the Financial Strength Rank. But if a company is consistently profitable, its financial strength will be stronger.

Profitability & Growth : 9/10

vs
industry
vs
history
Operating margin (%) 19.90
GMCR's Operating margin (%) is ranked higher than
95% of the 1709 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 6.21 vs. GMCR: 19.90 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Operating margin (%) Range
Min: 0.59   Max: 20.12
Current: 19.9

0.59
20.12
Net-margin (%) 12.59
GMCR's Net-margin (%) is ranked higher than
92% of the 1710 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 4.48 vs. GMCR: 12.59 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Net-margin (%) Range
Min: -2.51   Max: 12.67
Current: 12.59

-2.51
12.67
ROE (%) 18.28
GMCR's ROE (%) is ranked higher than
91% of the 1693 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 8.50 vs. GMCR: 18.28 )
GMCR' s 10-Year ROE (%) Range
Min: -13.86   Max: 41.23
Current: 18.28

-13.86
41.23
ROA (%) 13.32
GMCR's ROA (%) is ranked higher than
95% of the 1721 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 4.24 vs. GMCR: 13.32 )
GMCR' s 10-Year ROA (%) Range
Min: -5.82   Max: 19.13
Current: 13.32

-5.82
19.13
ROC (Joel Greenblatt) (%) 53.87
GMCR's ROC (Joel Greenblatt) (%) is ranked higher than
95% of the 1714 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 14.18 vs. GMCR: 53.87 )
GMCR' s 10-Year ROC (Joel Greenblatt) (%) Range
Min: 7.04   Max: 52.64
Current: 53.87

7.04
52.64
Revenue Growth (3Y)(%) 19.20
GMCR's Revenue Growth (3Y)(%) is ranked higher than
94% of the 1469 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 4.70 vs. GMCR: 19.20 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Revenue Growth (3Y)(%) Range
Min: 11.3   Max: 58.8
Current: 19.2

11.3
58.8
EBITDA Growth (3Y)(%) 33.80
GMCR's EBITDA Growth (3Y)(%) is ranked higher than
96% of the 1297 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 3.20 vs. GMCR: 33.80 )
GMCR' s 10-Year EBITDA Growth (3Y)(%) Range
Min: 10.7   Max: 80.6
Current: 33.8

10.7
80.6
EPS Growth (3Y)(%) 41.90
GMCR's EPS Growth (3Y)(%) is ranked higher than
95% of the 1170 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 3.80 vs. GMCR: 41.90 )
GMCR' s 10-Year EPS Growth (3Y)(%) Range
Min: 0   Max: 90.3
Current: 41.9

0
90.3
» GMCR's 10-Y Financials

Financials


Revenue & Net Income
Cash & Debt
Oprt. Cash Flow & Free Cash Flow

» Details

Guru Trades

Q1 2014

GMCR Guru Trades in Q1 2014

Joel Greenblatt 115,543 sh (New)
Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc 174,580 sh (New)
RS Investment Management 69,725 sh (New)
Steven Cohen 274,324 sh (+1259.18%)
John Hussman Sold Out
Paul Tudor Jones Sold Out
Pioneer Investments Sold Out
Jeremy Grantham 10,400 sh (-86.63%)
» More
Q2 2014

GMCR Guru Trades in Q2 2014

Joel Greenblatt 173,159 sh (+49.87%)
Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc 196,280 sh (+12.43%)
RS Investment Management 74,895 sh (+7.41%)
Steven Cohen 32,900 sh (unchged)
Jeremy Grantham Sold Out
» More
Q3 2014

GMCR Guru Trades in Q3 2014

Jim Simons 170,874 sh (New)
Steven Cohen 55,800 sh (+69.60%)
Pioneer Investments 427,586 sh (unchged)
Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc 191,610 sh (-2.38%)
Joel Greenblatt 163,093 sh (-5.81%)
RS Investment Management 60,780 sh (-18.85%)
» More
Q4 2014

GMCR Guru Trades in Q4 2014

Pioneer Investments 503,048 sh (+17.65%)
RS Investment Management 66,893 sh (+10.06%)
Jim Simons Sold Out
Steven Cohen Sold Out
Joel Greenblatt 106,865 sh (-34.48%)
Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc 123,600 sh (-35.49%)
» More
» Details

Insider Trades

Latest Guru Trades with GMCR

(List those with share number changes of more than 20%, or impact to portfolio more than 0.1%)



No Guru Trades Found!
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Guru Investment Theses on Keurig Green Mountain Inc

David Einhorn Comments on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters - Oct 16, 2013

We added to our short position in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR). Although the company again missed the consensus estimate for sales, bullish analysts scrambled to lower forward revenue forecasts while insisting that all is well in mudville. Attention quickly shifted away from the results when new CEO Brian Kelley announced on the Q3 earnings call that GMCR would hold its first ever investor day in September. When asked what prompted the decision, Mr. Kelley said, "I think a number of people on our team have found that an investor day that is crisp, but thorough on the key issues can be very valuable to help people understand our company. And I think it's – that's the core purpose is to help you understand our company better.

"The evening before the invitation-only event on September 10, the New York Times reported that there was a large discrepancy between the number of K-Cups the company says it has sold and the numbers implied using data from the tracking firm IRI. For years there have been questions about misconduct within GMCR's distribution and accounting departments. This new information raised the possibility that this activity is continuing, with GMCR potentially booking hundreds of millions of dollars of non-existent K-Cup sales.

We watched the company's live investor day webcast, waiting to see how Mr. Kelley would fieldany inquiries on the matter. Despite a lengthy Q&A session, the questions never came. We later heard that Mr. Kelley was asked about it during a break and essentially told investors that for the New York Times to be right, then you'd have to believe that he was in on it.

That's a non-denial denial worthy of Nixon Attorney General John Mitchell. Mr. Kelley, a former Coke executive, was hired to replace Larry Blanford in late 2012. Prior to his tenure at Coke, Mr.Kelley spent five years as the CEO of SIRVA, Inc., a relocation services company whose shares_collapsed during his tenure and were delisted or 'relocated' from the NYSE shortly thereafter. A subsequent lawsuit that was settled alleged that when Mr. Kelley was told of a reserve shortfall at a subsidiary, he, together with other defendants, refused to take a charge to earnings and instead raised earnings guidance. The suit referred to Mr. Kelley as "a spin doctor due to his ability to twist negative information about SIRVA."

Three years ago, GMCR stopped disclosing the number of K-Cups sold, which is comparable to Ford not disclosing the number of cars and trucks it sells. One analyst (the only one who is publicly bearish on the stock) tried to derive K-Cup sales volume by multiplying the number of brewers GMCR says are in use by the number of K-Cups GMCR states are used per machine. At the investor day, Mr. Kelley derided this derivation: "So, you're applying straight math that we don't do." The analyst pressed and Mr. Kelley suggested that the investor day was neither the time nor the place: "We're not going to get into that here. That is not the intent, and we're not going to go into that, the model, in that kind of detail here." Not here? Then where? Apparently basic sales data is not GMCR's cup of tea and does not meet the criteria for an investor day Q&A that promised to be thorough on the key issues. It is impossible to reconcile GMCR's piecemeal disclosures with its financial statements, and the new CEO repudiates straight math. If the core purpose of the investor day was to help people understand the company better, perhaps the next question should have been, "Are you in on it, Mr.Kelley?" GMCR's investor day also highlighted several other holes in the bull case:

On the one hand, GMCR reports to have sold 30 million brewers into the at-home market.On the other hand, the company claims that the installed base is only 16 million brewers.According to the company, 26%-32% of all brewers ever sold are not in home use.

Mr.Kelley said many were "gifted to someone else." Insinuating that Keurig brewers are gifts that remain unopened is certainly a unique marketing strategy as the holiday season approaches, but it reinforces the small-installed-base narrative which in turn supports the bull story in two ways: (1) it implies that the market is not saturated; and (2) it counters analysis that would otherwise indicate that the attachment rate (estimated daily K-Cup consumption per brewer) is falling. Setting aside the implausibility that so many brewers are purchased and not used (our work suggests that many were never sold in the first place), if millions of machines are sitting in people's closets (who are unlikely to be future customers), the market is far more saturated than the company would like everyone to believe.

In 2011, GMCR management claimed that it couldn't meet K-Cup demand due to inadequate manufacturing capacity. At the investor day, management stated that it is using only 31% of its capacity in 2013 and used only 29% in 2012. We can't reconcile the company's prior claims that it had a capacity shortage in 2011 and then had so much surplus capacity in 2012. Between 2011 and 2013, gross margins expanded from 38% to 42%. How can a manufacturer go from operating at full capacity to only a small fraction of capacity without underutilization negatively impacting margins? Moreover, 31%utilization implies that GMCR has enough capacity to meet its growth plans through the balance of the decade. Given this, it is hard to see why management plans to add even more. Though GMCR has reduced its capital spending this year, it still spends almost twice as much as other packaged goods companies, and indicated that next year capital spending "might tick up a little bit" more than sales.

GMCR intends to offer a new brewer in late 2014. Management said that the new brewer would be able to discern between GMCR-manufactured K-Cups and non-licensed K-Cups,hinting that this would allow the company to close the system and freeze out the non-licensed competition. Management declined to say whether it would program the new brewers to do so. Closing the system would enable GMCR to reclaim its monopoly priceson K-Cups. However, it is unclear why consumers would want to switch from an opensystem offering more choices and lower prices to a closed system with fewer choices andhigher prices. Last year, GMCR introduced the Vue, which flopped for this reason.Conversely, if the new machine does not close the system, then it won't change thecompetitive dynamic where K-Cups are becoming commoditized and GMCR is losingmarket share. We have heard that GMCR management privately suggested to one largeshareholder that the threat to re-close the system is a bluff to try to convince competitors to become licensed partners.

From David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital third quarter 2013 letter.



Check out David Einhorn latest stock trades

David Einhorn Comments on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters - May 13, 2013

The other significant loser in the quarter was Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR). We would love to be the “Credentialed Bear” that gets invited to ask tough questions at its annual shareholder meeting, but we aren’t waiting by our iPhones. Shares of GMCR increased from $41.34 to $56.76 in the quarter.

From David Einhorn's first quarter 2013 letter.
Check out David Einhorn latest stock trades

Ratios

vs
industry
vs
history
P/E(ttm) 30.80
GMCR's P/E(ttm) is ranked higher than
68% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 27.00 vs. GMCR: 30.80 )
GMCR' s 10-Year P/E(ttm) Range
Min: 8.1   Max: 105.15
Current: 30.8

8.1
105.15
Forward P/E 24.51
GMCR's Forward P/E is ranked higher than
75% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 38.46 vs. GMCR: 24.51 )
N/A
PE(NRI) 31.00
GMCR's PE(NRI) is ranked higher than
70% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 27.10 vs. GMCR: 31.00 )
GMCR' s 10-Year PE(NRI) Range
Min: 8.1   Max: 104.48
Current: 31

8.1
104.48
P/B 5.20
GMCR's P/B is ranked lower than
52% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 2.10 vs. GMCR: 5.20 )
GMCR' s 10-Year P/B Range
Min: 1.23   Max: 15.15
Current: 5.2

1.23
15.15
P/S 3.90
GMCR's P/S is ranked lower than
64% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 1.13 vs. GMCR: 3.90 )
GMCR' s 10-Year P/S Range
Min: 0.77   Max: 6.63
Current: 3.9

0.77
6.63
PFCF 83.20
GMCR's PFCF is ranked higher than
67% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 60.75 vs. GMCR: 83.20 )
GMCR' s 10-Year PFCF Range
Min: 15.12   Max: 475.9
Current: 83.2

15.12
475.9
POCF 30.76
GMCR's POCF is ranked higher than
65% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 17.38 vs. GMCR: 30.76 )
GMCR' s 10-Year POCF Range
Min: 7.36   Max: 1199.89
Current: 30.76

7.36
1199.89
EV-to-EBIT 19.18
GMCR's EV-to-EBIT is ranked higher than
74% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 19.75 vs. GMCR: 19.18 )
GMCR' s 10-Year EV-to-EBIT Range
Min: 5.8   Max: 59.4
Current: 19.18

5.8
59.4
PEG 0.56
GMCR's PEG is ranked higher than
98% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 0.00 vs. GMCR: 0.56 )
GMCR' s 10-Year PEG Range
Min: 0.11   Max: 5.74
Current: 0.56

0.11
5.74
Shiller P/E 55.10
GMCR's Shiller P/E is ranked higher than
71% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 51.89 vs. GMCR: 55.10 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Shiller P/E Range
Min: 22.47   Max: 266.54
Current: 55.1

22.47
266.54
Current Ratio 2.77
GMCR's Current Ratio is ranked higher than
87% of the 1708 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 1.58 vs. GMCR: 2.77 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Current Ratio Range
Min: 1.13   Max: 4.25
Current: 2.77

1.13
4.25
Quick Ratio 1.80
GMCR's Quick Ratio is ranked higher than
86% of the 1708 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 1.04 vs. GMCR: 1.80 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Quick Ratio Range
Min: 0.6   Max: 3.2
Current: 1.8

0.6
3.2
Days Inventory 80.12
GMCR's Days Inventory is ranked higher than
67% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 74.02 vs. GMCR: 80.12 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Days Inventory Range
Min: 35.96   Max: 101.52
Current: 80.12

35.96
101.52
Days Sales Outstanding 49.86
GMCR's Days Sales Outstanding is ranked higher than
73% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 50.71 vs. GMCR: 49.86 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Days Sales Outstanding Range
Min: 28.99   Max: 48.71
Current: 49.86

28.99
48.71

Dividend & Buy Back

vs
industry
vs
history
Dividend Yield 1.00
GMCR's Dividend Yield is ranked lower than
77% of the 1280 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 1.93 vs. GMCR: 1.00 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Dividend Yield Range
Min: 0.44   Max: 0.88
Current: 1

0.44
0.88
Dividend Payout 0.27
GMCR's Dividend Payout is ranked higher than
95% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 0.76 vs. GMCR: 0.27 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Dividend Payout Range
Min: 0.27   Max: 0.49
Current: 0.27

0.27
0.49
Yield on cost (5-Year) 1.00
GMCR's Yield on cost (5-Year) is ranked lower than
77% of the 1302 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 2.12 vs. GMCR: 1.00 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Yield on cost (5-Year) Range
Min: 0.44   Max: 0.88
Current: 1

0.44
0.88
Share Buyback Rate -1.60
GMCR's Share Buyback Rate is ranked higher than
68% of the 1067 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: -0.30 vs. GMCR: -1.60 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Share Buyback Rate Range
Min: -0.3   Max: -9.8
Current: -1.6

Valuation & Return

vs
industry
vs
history
Price/Net Current Asset Value 111.70
GMCR's Price/Net Current Asset Value is ranked higher than
88% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 0.00 vs. GMCR: 111.70 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Price/Net Current Asset Value Range
Min: 10.34   Max: 221.3
Current: 111.7

10.34
221.3
Price/Tangible Book 8.60
GMCR's Price/Tangible Book is ranked lower than
53% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 3.22 vs. GMCR: 8.60 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Price/Tangible Book Range
Min: 1.85   Max: 78.14
Current: 8.6

1.85
78.14
Price/DCF (Projected) 4.30
GMCR's Price/DCF (Projected) is ranked higher than
72% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 4.30 vs. GMCR: 4.30 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Price/DCF (Projected) Range
Min: 2.22   Max: 64.6
Current: 4.3

2.22
64.6
Price/Median PS Value 1.80
GMCR's Price/Median PS Value is ranked higher than
51% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 1.20 vs. GMCR: 1.80 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Price/Median PS Value Range
Min: 0.12   Max: 2.58
Current: 1.8

0.12
2.58
Price/Peter Lynch Fair Value 1.20
GMCR's Price/Peter Lynch Fair Value is ranked higher than
95% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 0.00 vs. GMCR: 1.20 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Price/Peter Lynch Fair Value Range
Min: 0.4   Max: 4.31
Current: 1.2

0.4
4.31
Price/Graham Number 3.40
GMCR's Price/Graham Number is ranked higher than
62% of the 1828 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 2.40 vs. GMCR: 3.40 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Price/Graham Number Range
Min: 0.97   Max: 12.56
Current: 3.4

0.97
12.56
Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) 5.30
GMCR's Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) is ranked higher than
70% of the 1702 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 5.30 vs. GMCR: 5.30 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) Range
Min: 1.7   Max: 17.3
Current: 5.3

1.7
17.3
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) 55.16
GMCR's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) is ranked higher than
99% of the 1125 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 5.86 vs. GMCR: 55.16 )
GMCR' s 10-Year Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) Range
Min: 13.6   Max: 74.1
Current: 55.16

13.6
74.1

Analyst Estimate

Sep15 Sep16 Sep17
Revenue(Mil) 5,062 5,866 6,956
EPS($) 4.10 4.65 5.94
EPS without NRI($) 4.10 4.65 5.94

Business Description

Industry: Consumer Packaged Goods » Packaged Foods
Compare:NSRGY, UL, UN, DANOY, GIS » details
Traded in other countries:GM2.Germany, GMCR.Switzerland,
Keurig Green Mountain Inc, formerly Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc., is a Delaware Corporation formed in July 1993. The Company is engaged in the coffee and coffeemaker businesses in the United States and Canada. It sells Keurig Single Cup brewers and roast high-quality Arabica bean coffees including single-origin, Fair Trade Certified, certified organic, flavored, limited edition and proprietary blends offered in K-Cup and Vue packs for use with its Keurig Single Cup brewers. The Company also offers traditional whole bean and ground coffee in other package types including bags, fractional packages and cans. In addition, it produces and sells other specialty beverages in portion packs including hot apple cider, hot and iced teas, iced coffees, iced fruit brews, hot cocoa and other dairy-based beverages. The Company manages its operations through three business segments, the Specialty Coffee business unit ('SCBU'), the Keurig business unit ('KBU') and the Canadian business unit ('CBU'). Due to this combination, the results of U.S. operations, formerly reported in the SCBU and KBU segments, are reported in the Domestic segment and the results of Canadian operations are in the "Canada" segment. The Domestic segment sells single cup brewers and accessories, and sources, produces and sells coffee, hot cocoa, teas and other beverages in portion packs and coffee in more traditional packaging including bags and fractional packs to retailers including supermarkets, department stores, mass merchandisers, club stores, and convenience stores; to restaurants, hospitality accounts, office coffee distributors, and partner brand owners; and to consumers through Company websites. The Canada segment sells single cup brewers, accessories, and sources, produces and sells coffee, teas and other beverages in portion packs and coffee in more traditional packaging including bags, cans and fractional packs under a variety of brands to retailers including supermarkets, department stores, mass merchandisers, club stores, through office coffee services to offices, convenience stores, restaurants, hospitality accounts, and to consumers through its website. The Company's competitors in the coffee marketplace include large national and international companies and numerous local and regional companies.
» More Articles for GMCR

Headlines

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A Few Reasons to Invest In This Consumer Goods Stock for the Long Run Dec 21 2014 


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