Jim Simons Predictable Stocks: ITT Educational Services Inc., Pharmaceutical Product Development, Berry Petroleum Company, and Nexen Inc.

Jim Simons Predictable Stocks: ESI, PPDI, BRY, NXY

Author's Avatar
Apr 28, 2010
Jim Simons, the math genius who explores the market inefficiencies through complex models, has produced an average annual return over 38 percent since 1989 from his flagship fund at Renaissance Technologies. He runs complex strategies and trades with large number of stocks.


Simons shuns the limelight and rarely gives interviews, citing Benjamin the Donkey in Animal Farm for explanation: "God gave me a tail to keep off the flies. But I'd rather have had no tail and no flies." On October 10, 2009, Simons announced he would retire on January 1, 2010 but remain at Renaissance as nonexecutive chairman. Does this mean he isn't involved in the stock trading activities? We really don't care, since the system he's created is what Renaissance Technologies still uses to buy and sell stocks.


Jim Simons has been touted as the best trader on the planet and has been quoted stating; "The advantage scientists bring into the game is less their mathematical or computational skills than their ability to think scientifically. They are less likely to accept an apparent winning strategy that might be a mere statistical fluke."


For more details on Jim Simons’, go to http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Jim+Simons


In this article we would like to highlight some of Jim's best holdings based on GuruFocus' predictability rating and the current fair value from our DCF calculator using current estimates and book values from the latest quarterly statement. Jim Simons owns 3023 stocks with a total value of $26.16 billion.


Four of Jim Simons Highest Earnings Yielding Stocks:


No. 1: ITT Educational Services Inc. (ESI, Financial), Weightings: 0.22% - 612,100 Shares


No. 2: Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI, Financial), Weightings: 0.08% - 850,648 Shares


No. 3: Berry Petroleum Company (BRY, Financial), Weightings: 0.02% - 169,300 Shares


No. 4: Nexen Inc. (NXY, Financial), Weightings: 0.01% - 450,500 Shares


With over 3023 stocks in his portfolio, the argument against wide diversification is almost shattered considering Jim Simon's track record. This does not mean that the individual investor should try to buy and keep up with this many stocks, which is simply not feasible. So, this article has found companies that are highly predictable and offer the highest margin of safety compared to others in the same portfolio.


ITT Educational Services Inc. (ESI)


ITT EDUCATIONAL SERVICES, INC. is a proprietary provider of technical postsecondary degree programs in the United States based on student enrollment. ITT Educational Services Inc. has a market cap of $3.81 billion; its shares were traded at around $110.49 with a P/E ratio of 12.4 and P/S ratio of 2.9. Itt Educational Services Inc. had an annual average earnings growth of 33.9% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated ITT Educational Services Inc. the business predictability rank of 5-star.


The company is looking to earn over $12 a share by 2011, which would give an earnings yield over 10% and growing. That along with the current need for education and training makes ESI one of the better holdings in the Renaissance portfolio.


Jim Simons owns 612,100 shares as of 12/31/2009, which accounts for 0.22% of the $26 billion portfolio at Renaissance Technologies LLC.


Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI)


As a global provider of discovery and development services and products for pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device companies, PPD applies innovative technologies, therapeutic expertise and a commitment to quality to help clients maximize the return on their R&D investments. Pharmaceutical Product Development Inc. has a market cap of $3.27 billion; its shares were traded at around $27.64 with a P/E ratio of 21.7 and P/S ratio of 2.3. The dividend yield of Pharmaceutical Product Development Inc. stocks is 2.2%. Pharmaceutical Product Development Inc. had an annual average earning growth of 17.5% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Pharmaceutical Product Development Inc. the business predictability rank of 5-star. The company has an $11.38 book value and while trading close to its year high, still offers a 20% margin of safety based on their forward earnings estimates. You may want to wait and see if the price comes down. Remember, there are no strike outs in the market if you don't swing.


Jim Simons owns 850,648 shares as of 12/31/2009, which accounts for 0.08% of the $26 billion portfolio at Renaissance Technologies LLC.


Berry Petroleum Company (BRY)


Berry Petroleum Company is an independent energy company engaged in the production, development, acquisition, exploitation and exploration of crude oil and natural gas. Berry Petroleum Company has a market cap of $1.69 billion; its shares were traded at around $31.98 with a P/E ratio of 22.5 and P/S ratio of 2.9. The dividend yield of Berry Petroleum Company stocks is 0.9%. Berry Petroleum Company had an annual average earnings growth of 26.2% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Berry Petroleum Company the business predictability rank of 5-star.


In 2010, Berry is looking to earn $1.62 a share, which would give them a 33% margin of safety to their fair value based on their historic earnings growth and current book value. With this stock trading near its year high, you might want to wait for a little pull back to, or be prepared just in case.


Jim Simons owns 169,300 shares as of 12/31/2009, which accounts for 0.02% of the $26 billion portfolio at Renaissance Technologies LLC.


Nexen Inc. (NXY)


Nexen Inc. is an independent, Canadian-based global energy company. Nexen Inc. has a market cap of $13.06 billion; its shares were traded at around $24.95 with a P/E ratio of 25.5 and P/S ratio of 2.4. The dividend yield of Nexen Inc. stocks is 0.7%. Nexen Inc. had an annual average earnings growth of 17.3% over the past 10 years. GuruFocus rated Nexen Inc. the business predictability rank of 5-star.


Nexen is predicting tremendous growth in 2010 and 2011, where earnings are estimated to come in around $2.82. If they reach this goal the current price will give an 11% yield.


Jim Simons owns 450,500 shares as of 12/31/2009, which accounts for 0.01% of the $26 billion portfolio at Renaissance Technologies LLC.


Each of the companies above offer predictability and high margins of safety compared to other stocks within the portfolio. Please feel free to use the DCF Calculator with the stock's current data to find the current "fair value" and remember that the final decision should always be in your hands.


GuruFocus provides real time information and insights of Investment Gurus such as Warren Buffett and THE GURU’s NAME for Premium Members. If you are not a premium member, click here to sign up or upgrade. 7-Day Free Trial is available.