We have preferred regional banks for three reasons. First, at TAM we focus on price to tangible book value (P/TBV) as opposed to simple P/B. Tangible book value is a better measure of intrinsic value as it excludes intangible assets which wouldn’t carry much value in liquidation. As discussed earlier, one of the dimensions we focus on as we evaluate companies is the assets. The valuations of KEY and CMA are much closer to peers listed above on a P/TBV basis. Evaluating just a single statistic may provide misleading conclusions when evaluating an investment. Thus, we also consider how well a company can compound its book value over time. As seen in the table above, both KEY and CMA are generating higher returns on assets (ROA) than peers. This is important as companies that generate higher returns deserve premium valuations. Again, we distinguish among the many metrics. We focus on ROA as the measure of ROA does not favor companies that carry higher leverage and perhaps higher risk.
Second, the Tier 1 Common Equity ratios for KEY and CMA compare favorably against the money center peers. This metric indicates that the Fund’s regional banks are as well, if not better, capitalized than money center banks. As discussed in the opening paragraphs of the letter, the integrity of the balance sheet is a key dimension to our analysis.
Third, the chart above also shows the Level III assets for each company. Level III assets are not traded in liquid markets so prices are determined using a company’s internal models. Those prices could be entirely accurate, but as seen during the financial crisis, when liquidity dries up, asset prices of illiquid securities can get distorted quickly. We aren’t willing to take that risk. By focusing on KEY and CMA’s TBV and lower exposure to Level III assets, we gain additional comfort with their balance sheets. The regulators agree with our view. The table above shows “severely stressed capital ratios” from the Federal Reserve test earlier this year. The stress test assumptions are extreme (deep recession, high unemployment, 50% decline in equity prices and 2001 house prices), but the results do provide insight into the strength of the asset portfolios.
KEY and CMA’s above average results on the stress tests are another indication of the high transparency and durability of their balance sheets.
In sum, a discount to book value isn’t good enough for us at TAM to invest in a stock. We also need conviction in adequate downside protection. Investing in companies with low leverage and high quality assets helps us develop that conviction. CMA and KEY fit our strict criteria and have provided solid returns to investors thus far and as both grow book value plus dividends in the future, we are confident those returns will continue.
The Fund invested in the common stocks in KEY and CMA at discounts to tangible book and with the expectation that they could grow book value at double digit rates over time. Given the satisfactory ROAs and BV compounding (trailing twelve month BV growth including dividends: CMA: 12%, KEY: 9.8%), we are happy with how our companies are executing, despite persistently low interest rates and sluggish loan growth. What’s more impressive is that our companies are able to generate higher ROAs despite carrying more excess capital which weighs on returns. Both companies are positive contributors to the Fund’s performance year to date.
From Third Avenue Value Fund’s Third Quarter 2014 Commentary.
