What's Driving Alcoa Corp's Surprising 18% Stock Rally?

Alcoa Corp (AA, Financial), a leading player in the Metals & Mining industry, has experienced a notable fluctuation in its stock price over recent periods. With a current market capitalization of $6.69 billion, the stock price stands at $37.24. Over the past week, Alcoa Corp has seen a 3.54% decline in its stock price, yet this short-term loss is contrasted by a significant 17.64% gain over the past three months. According to GuruFocus's valuation metrics, Alcoa Corp is currently fairly valued, with a GF Value of $40.37, slightly down from the past GF Value of $41.02. Previously, the company was considered modestly undervalued, indicating a recent alignment between the market price and the GF Value.

Introduction to Alcoa Corp

Alcoa Corp, a titan in the Metals & Mining sector, operates as a vertically integrated aluminum company. Its business encompasses bauxite mining, alumina refining, and primary aluminum manufacturing. As a major bauxite miner and alumina refiner by production volume, Alcoa's financial performance is closely tied to the aluminum supply chain's commodity prices. The company's revenue is primarily generated from its Aluminum segment, with a significant portion coming from the United States. 1779875150569828352.png

Assessing Alcoa Corp's Profitability

Alcoa Corp's Profitability Rank stands at 5/10, reflecting a moderate level of profitability within the industry. The company's operating margin is currently at -2.15%, which is better than 42.01% of its peers in a pool of 857 companies. In terms of return on equity (ROE), Alcoa Corp has a -13.93% ROE, outperforming 53.04% of 2,481 companies in the same industry. The return on assets (ROA) is -4.56%, surpassing 71.48% of 2,693 companies, while the return on invested capital (ROIC) is -2.62%, which is higher than 77.54% of 2,663 companies. Over the past decade, Alcoa has managed to achieve profitability in 3 years, ranking better than 58.72% of 1,199 companies. 1779875169100263424.png

Growth Prospects of Alcoa Corp

The Growth Rank for Alcoa Corp is currently at 3/10, indicating a lower growth trajectory compared to its competitors. The company's 3-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share stands at 5.90%, which is better than 38.51% of 592 companies in the industry. However, the 5-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share shows a slight decline of -0.20%, outperforming 24.56% of 513 companies. Looking ahead, the Total Revenue Growth Rate (Future 3Y To 5Y Est) is projected at -1.63%, which is still better than 21.32% of 197 companies. The 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate is at -28.50%, which is better than 19.04% of 1,775 companies. Notably, the EPS Growth Rate (Future 3Y To 5Y Est) is expected to be 44.30%, placing Alcoa Corp in a better position than 93.48% of 46 companies. 1779875187957854208.png

Notable Shareholders in Alcoa Corp

Alcoa Corp's shareholder base includes several prominent investors. Ken Fisher (Trades, Portfolio) holds the largest stake with 2,349,845 shares, representing 1.31% of the company. Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio) follows with 784,196 shares, accounting for 0.44% of Alcoa Corp, while Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio) owns 694,165 shares, equating to 0.39% of the company. These significant holdings by well-known investors underscore the confidence in Alcoa Corp's market position and future prospects.

Competitive Landscape

When compared to its competitors, Alcoa Corp maintains a strong market presence. Constellium SE (CSTM, Financial) has a market capitalization of $3.15 billion, Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU, Financial) is valued at $1.48 billion, and Century Aluminum Co (CENX, Financial) stands at $1.68 billion. Alcoa Corp's larger market cap suggests a dominant position in the industry, potentially offering a more stable investment opportunity.

Conclusion

In summary, Alcoa Corp's recent stock performance reflects a fair valuation in the market, with a notable gain over the past three months. The company's profitability metrics, while mixed, show resilience in certain areas compared to industry peers. Growth prospects present a varied picture, with future earnings per share expected to rise significantly. The confidence of major holders like Ken Fisher (Trades, Portfolio), Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio), and Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio), along with Alcoa's competitive market cap, positions the company as a noteworthy player in the Metals & Mining industry. Investors should continue to monitor Alcoa Corp's performance, particularly in light of its growth potential and industry standing.

This article, generated by GuruFocus, is designed to provide general insights and is not tailored financial advice. Our commentary is rooted in historical data and analyst projections, utilizing an impartial methodology, and is not intended to serve as specific investment guidance. It does not formulate a recommendation to purchase or divest any stock and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial circumstances. Our objective is to deliver long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Be aware that our analysis might not incorporate the most recent, price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative information. GuruFocus holds no position in the stocks mentioned herein.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.