What's Driving Global Blue Group Holding AG's Surprising 11% Stock Rally?

Global Blue Group Holding AG (GB, Financial) has recently experienced a notable uptick in its stock performance. With a market capitalization of $1.05 billion, the company's shares are currently trading at $5.24. Over the past week, the stock has seen an impressive 11.97% gain, and over the past three months, it has maintained a steady climb with an 11.49% gain. Despite these positive trends, the GF Value suggests caution, listing the stock as a Possible Value Trap, Think Twice, both currently and in the past valuation three months ago. The GF Value, defined by GuruFocus.com, calculates a stock's intrinsic value using historical multiples, past performance adjustments, and future business estimates. This discrepancy between the stock's market price and its GF Value, which stands at $12.14, down from a past GF Value of $13.43, indicates that investors should approach with caution.

Introduction to Global Blue Group Holding AG

Global Blue Group Holding AG operates within the software industry, specializing in seamless shopping and payment solutions for tourists. The company's offerings are divided into three business segments: Tax-Free Shopping Solutions (TFSS), Added-Value Payment Solutions (AVPS), and Retail Technology Solutions (RTS). These services aim to enhance the shopping experience for international travelers while providing valuable data and insights to partner retailers. 1773714478668607488.png

Assessing Profitability

When it comes to profitability, Global Blue Group Holding AG has a Profitability Rank of 4/10. The company's operating margin stands at 21.30%, which is better than 90.18% of its industry peers. Its Return on Equity (ROE) is an impressive 125.00%, surpassing 98.41% of competitors, while the Return on Assets (ROA) is 1.85%, outperforming 54.5% of the industry. The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is 6.29%, which is higher than 61.77% of industry peers. However, the company has only been profitable for 2 years over the past decade, which is better than just 18.54% of its industry counterparts. 1773714501850525696.png

Growth Challenges

Global Blue's growth prospects are less optimistic, with a Growth Rank of 1/10. The company's 3-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share has decreased by 8.70%, which is still better than 17.11% of industry peers. The 5-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share has seen a significant decline of 20.50%, outperforming only 7.51% of competitors. Most concerning is the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate, which has plummeted by 105.40%, yet is still better than 3.37% of industry peers. These figures highlight the substantial growth challenges that Global Blue faces. 1773714518334140416.png

Notable Shareholders

Among the notable shareholders of Global Blue Group Holding AG are Daniel Loeb (Trades, Portfolio), holding 8,387,601 shares, which translates to a 4.2% stake in the company, and Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio), with 13,600 shares, representing a mere 0.01% share. Their investments reflect a belief in the company's potential despite the current challenges it faces.

Competitive Landscape

In comparison to its competitors, Global Blue Group Holding AG holds its ground with a market cap of $1.05 billion. Zuora Inc (ZUO, Financial) has a slightly higher market cap of $1.33 billion, while Sterling Check Corp (STER, Financial) leads with a market cap of $1.5 billion. Tuya Inc (TUYA, Financial) is closely aligned with Global Blue, with a market cap of $1.04 billion. These companies represent the competitive environment in which Global Blue operates, each vying for a share of the software industry's lucrative market.

Conclusion

In summary, Global Blue Group Holding AG's recent stock performance has been positive, with significant gains over the past week and three months. However, the GF Valuation advises caution, labeling the stock as a possible value trap. The company's profitability metrics are strong, particularly in comparison to industry peers, but its growth challenges are evident, with negative growth rates in revenue and EPS. Notable shareholders maintain a presence in the company, and its market position is competitive within the industry. Investors should weigh these factors carefully when considering Global Blue as a potential addition to their portfolios.

This article, generated by GuruFocus, is designed to provide general insights and is not tailored financial advice. Our commentary is rooted in historical data and analyst projections, utilizing an impartial methodology, and is not intended to serve as specific investment guidance. It does not formulate a recommendation to purchase or divest any stock and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial circumstances. Our objective is to deliver long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Be aware that our analysis might not incorporate the most recent, price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative information. GuruFocus holds no position in the stocks mentioned herein.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.