Why HF Sinclair Corp's Stock Skyrocketed 34% in a Quarter: A Deep Dive

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HF Sinclair Corp (DINO, Financial), an integrated petroleum refiner, has seen a significant surge in its stock price over the past three months. With a current market cap of $11.24 billion and a price of $61.06, the company's stock has gained 6.79% over the past week and a whopping 33.60% over the past three months. This article aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the factors contributing to this impressive performance.

Stock Performance and Valuation

One of the key indicators of a stock's value is the GF Value. The GF Value, defined by GuruFocus.com, calculates a stock's intrinsic value using historical multiples, past performance adjustments, and future business estimates. Currently, HF Sinclair Corp's GF Value stands at $58.49, slightly lower than its price of $61.06, indicating that the stock is 'Fairly Valued'. This is a significant improvement from three months ago when the stock was 'Significantly Undervalued' with a GF Value of $61.3.

Company Overview

HF Sinclair Corp operates in the Oil & Gas industry. The company owns and operates seven refineries with a total crude oil throughput capacity of 678,000 barrels per day. It also has the capacity to produce 380 million gallons of renewable diesel annually. HF Sinclair Corp's marketing business spans over 300 distributors and 1,500 wholesale branded sites across 30 states. Additionally, the company holds a 47% ownership stake in Holly Energy Partners, which owns and operates petroleum product pipelines and terminals primarily in the southwestern United States. The company has recently proposed to purchase the remaining 53% stake in Holly Energy Partners. 1700166088488124416.png

Profitability Analysis

HF Sinclair Corp's Profitability Rank is 8/10, indicating a high level of profitability. The company's Operating Margin of 9.61% is better than 52.43% of the companies in the industry. Furthermore, the company's ROE of 25.92%, ROA of 13.09%, and ROIC of 18.91% are all higher than the industry averages, indicating efficient management and profitable operations. Over the past 10 years, the company has been profitable for 8 years, which is better than 75.4% of the companies in the industry. 1700166112055918592.png

Growth Prospects

HF Sinclair Corp's Growth Rank is 5/10, indicating moderate growth prospects. The company's 3-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share of 21.80% and 5-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share of 12.80% are better than 74% and 72.2% of the companies in the industry, respectively. However, the company's future total revenue growth rate estimate is -7.63%, which is better than only 16.92% of the companies. The 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate is 45.80%, better than 72.3% of the companies, but the future EPS without NRI growth rate estimate is -14.31%, better than only 10.77% of the companies. 1700166129000906752.png

Major Stock Holders

The top three holders of HF Sinclair Corp's stock are Joel Greenblatt (Trades, Portfolio), Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio), and Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio). Joel Greenblatt (Trades, Portfolio) holds the most shares, with 101,999 shares, representing 0.06% of the total shares. Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio) and Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio) each hold 0.02% of the total shares, with 44,082 and 43,720 shares, respectively.

Competitive Landscape

HF Sinclair Corp operates in a competitive industry with major competitors including Icahn Enterprises LP (IEP, Financial) with a market cap of $8.05 billion, PBF Energy Inc (PBF, Financial) with a market cap of $6.71 billion, and Valvoline Inc (VVV, Financial) with a market cap of $4.73 billion.

Conclusion

In conclusion, HF Sinclair Corp's impressive stock performance can be attributed to its strong profitability, efficient operations, and growth prospects. Despite the competitive landscape, the company has managed to maintain a strong position in the industry. However, investors should keep an eye on the company's future growth estimates, which are lower than the industry averages. Despite these challenges, the company's stock remains fairly valued, making it an attractive investment option.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.