The stock of NIC (NAS:EGOV, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $34 per share and the market cap of $2.3 billion, NIC stock is estimated to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for NIC is shown in the chart below.
Because NIC is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 10.5% over the past five years.
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Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company’s financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company’s financial strength. NIC has a cash-to-debt ratio of 21.02, which ranks better than 100% of the companies in Market Overview industry. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks NIC’s financial strength as 7 out of 10, suggesting fair balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of NIC over the past years:
Companies that have been consistently profitable over the long term offer less risk for investors who may want to purchase shares. Higher profit margins usually dictate a better investment compared to a company with lower profit margins. NIC has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $460.5 million and earnings of $1.01 a share. Its operating margin is 18.99%, which ranks better than 100% of the companies in Market Overview industry. Overall, the profitability of NIC is ranked 8 out of 10, which indicates strong profitability. This is the revenue and net income of NIC over the past years:
One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of NIC is 10.5%, which ranks better than 100% of the companies in Market Overview industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is 5.6%, which ranks better than 100% of the companies in Market Overview industry.
One can also evaluate a company’s profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, NIC’s ROIC is 98.02 while its WACC came in at 7.27. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of NIC is shown below:
In summary, The stock of NIC (NAS:EGOV, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks better than 100% of the companies in Market Overview industry. To learn more about NIC stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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