The stock of Gazprom PJSC (OTCPK:OGZPY, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $6.175 per share and the market cap of $73 billion, Gazprom PJSC stock is believed to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Gazprom PJSC is shown in the chart below.
Because Gazprom PJSC is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 8% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 0.61% annually over the next three to five years.
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It is always important to check the financial strength of a company before buying its stock. Investing in companies with poor financial strength have a higher risk of permanent loss. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great way to understand the financial strength of a company. Gazprom PJSC has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.10, which is worse than 74% of the companies in Oil & Gas industry. The overall financial strength of Gazprom PJSC is 5 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Gazprom PJSC is fair. This is the debt and cash of Gazprom PJSC over the past years:
It is less risky to invest in profitable companies, especially those with consistent profitability over long term. A company with high profit margins is usually a safer investment than those with low profit margins. Gazprom PJSC has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $100.9 billion and loss of $0.092 a share. Its operating margin is 6.91%, which ranks better than 70% of the companies in Oil & Gas industry. Overall, the profitability of Gazprom PJSC is ranked 7 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Gazprom PJSC over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company's stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of Gazprom PJSC is 8%, which ranks better than 70% of the companies in Oil & Gas industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 8%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Oil & Gas industry.
Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, Gazprom PJSC's return on invested capital is 0.88, and its cost of capital is 9.80. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Gazprom PJSC is shown below:
In short, the stock of Gazprom PJSC (OTCPK:OGZPY, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Oil & Gas industry. To learn more about Gazprom PJSC stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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