Morning Brew: CPI Data Indicates No Fed Cuts, Major AI and Tech Developments Unfold

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Today's stock market summary shows subdued early trading as investors await the release of the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected at 8:30 AM ET, which is anticipated to show a 0.4% increase month-over-month. This follows three consecutive months of higher-than-expected CPI readings. Additionally, the April retail sales data and the May NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing index will be released at the same time.

Other important data set to be released today includes: - March Business Inventories and May NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 AM ET. - Weekly crude oil inventories at 10:30 AM ET. - March net long-term TIC flows at 4:00 PM ET.

Treasury yields are slightly lower ahead of these reports, with the 10-year note yield down by four basis points to 4.41%, and the 2-year note yield down by three basis points to 4.79%.

In stock-specific news, Boeing (BA, Financial) is down after being notified by the DOJ of a breach in their 2021 agreement regarding the 737 Max crashes. Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT, Financial) reported earnings that beat expectations but provided a weaker outlook for the coming fiscal year. Northrop Grumman (NOC, Financial) announced the retirement of CFO Dave Keffer and an increase in its quarterly dividend. AMC Entertainment (AMC, Financial) and GameStop (GME, Financial) are experiencing significant pre-market volatility after substantial gains earlier in the week. New York Community (NYCB, Financial) has struck a deal to sell about $5 billion in warehouse loans, and Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF, Financial) appointed a new Executive Chairman. Infinera (INFN, Financial) shared disappointing preliminary Q1 results and guidance, while VFC Corp (VFC, Financial) is exploring options for its Streetwear brand.

Reviewing overnight developments, Asian markets closed mixed with Japan slightly up and China down, while European indices mostly rose. Key economic data included Eurozone's Q1 GDP and employment figures meeting expectations, and France's April CPI aligning with forecasts. Notable news includes potential property market interventions in China and fiscal updates from Australia.

Today's News

April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3%, slightly below the anticipated 0.4%, with shelter and gasoline prices contributing significantly to this increase. Despite a general slowdown, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, matched expectations at a 0.3% rise, suggesting persistent inflation in services and no potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near future. This data aligns with a stagflation scenario, further evidenced by disappointing retail sales figures for April, which remained stagnant month-over-month against an expected 0.4% rise. (TSLA, CMCSA, NFLX)

Nvidia (NVDA, Financial) is poised for a strong quarterly performance as anticipation builds for its new Blackwell GPUs. Analysts predict robust F1Q results and F2Q guidance, driven by solid demand for existing GPU models and efficient supply chains, despite the upcoming product launches. Nvidia's stock saw a slight increase in pre-market trading as it prepares to release its quarterly report on May 22. (NVDA)

Comcast (CMCSA, Financial) announced the launch of StreamSaver, a competitively priced streaming bundle including Peacock, Netflix (NFLX, Financial), and Apple TV. This new offering aims to provide substantial value to Comcast's broadband and TV customers, reflecting the company's ongoing innovation in bundling video services. (CMCSA, NFLX)

The U.S. airline sector is experiencing a decrease in fares, with a 5.8% drop year-over-year in April, despite stable demand. This decline is attributed partly to lower jet fuel costs. With summer forecasts predicting continued lower fares, the industry remains optimistic about the travel season's prospects despite existing challenges like aircraft shortages and furloughed pilots. (DAL, UAL, AAL)

Monday.com (MNDY, Financial) reported impressive first-quarter results, with earnings and revenue exceeding expectations. The project management software company also raised its full-year guidance, reflecting strong customer growth and market penetration. Shares surged nearly 20% in pre-market trading, highlighting investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory. (MNDY, SMAR, ASAN)

Neuralink, led by Elon Musk, faces challenges as reports emerge of issues with its brain-computer interface, including threads detaching from implants. Despite these concerns, which had been previously identified in animal trials, the company proceeded with human tests without redesigning the device. This development raises questions about the project's future implications. (TSLA, Financial)

J.P. Morgan upgraded NIO (NIO, Financial) from Underweight to Neutral, citing positive developments in its battery service strategy and supportive Chinese government policies aimed at boosting auto demand. These factors are expected to enhance NIO's market position, particularly for its key electric vehicle models. (NIO)

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators has proposed significant investment in artificial intelligence, suggesting at least $32 billion in federal spending over three years. This initiative aims to position the U.S. competitively against global AI advancements, particularly those in China, and includes comprehensive policy recommendations for research and development. (GOOG, GOOGL)

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Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.